文章内容及数据全部来自柴静、优酷网和人民网联合首发的演讲视频《柴静雾霾调查:穹顶之下》
二、雾霾从哪儿来?
中科院告诉我它的来源是什么:燃煤、燃油、生物质燃烧、工业、养殖、化肥、扬尘,绝大部分都和人类活动有关系。中国的PM2.5,60%来自于燃煤和燃油,即化石燃料的燃烧。我们烧的化石能源比欧洲高出三到四倍。而煤和油的污染物之间可以发生大规模的化学反应。
- 煤怎么了?
2013年我们烧了36亿吨煤,比全世界所有其他国家加起来烧的煤还要多。上一次达到这样的消费量的是1860年的英国。2013年的36亿其中3亿8000万吨烧在了京津冀,3个亿烧在了河北。我觉得很意外,河北什么时候烧成这样了?清华的郝吉明院士告诉我,全世界的钢铁产量排名中国第一,河北第二,唐山第三,美国第四,唐山瞒报的产量第五。
熊跃群(原华北督查中心主任):有60%以上的钢铁企业没有任何审批手续,环评法甩在一边不用。真正破罐子破摔的是黑户,监管部门都不想去触及这一块。然而,一千多万吨钢是十万人就业。河北的钢铁已经到了取缔不了的程度。
煤越烧越多会是什么后果?好煤会越烧越少,劣质的煤炭会越来越多。
褐煤是世界上最年轻的煤,煤化程度特别低,一烧的时候将近有一半会变成黑灰飘在空中。2013年10月21日,第一天供暖的哈尔滨雾霾爆表,PM2.5在一千以上。因为他们烧了两千多万吨的褐煤,加上在2013年全国几十万台小锅炉没有任何标准和监管地一烧一排一放。
德国也用褐煤,但是会进行清洗和提质,英国人是95%以上的煤都洗干净,而在中国我们才洗了不到一半的煤,剩下一半煤中几乎有几亿吨是又污染又浪费的灰分被到处运输,最终在煤炉里燃烧,毫无作用。造成的结果是,很多这样的煤被居民烧掉,即使在中国城市也有1/4的人在烧散煤。
这占总煤量的20%散煤排放出来的二氧化硫(SO2)和所有的大电厂加起来一样多。要命的是,它的毒性非常大。在北京,冬天PM2.5的毒性远远高于夏天,光致癌物含量是夏季25倍。为何如此高?因为散烧煤炭是主要原因之一,它致癌物的排放因子非常之高。
这些年来我们的煤消耗大,结果越来越劣质,还缺乏清洁,排放也缺乏控制。它造成的结果就是,在中国煤炭消耗量越多的地方,PM2.5的浓度几乎也越高。
- 油怎么了?
中国用30年走过别国100年的工业化发展道路,在煤的污染上还附加了油的污染。
我们的车在十年间增加了将近一个亿。光北京2012年增加80万辆(头尾相连从北京排到深圳再回北京),造成结果是北京本地的污染源当中最大部分来自机动车。还有一个城市出乎意料,一年雾霾日甚至达200天以上。它是杭州,是全国人均汽车保有量最大的城市,平均两人一辆车,因而它的机动车污染达到40%。
车多就污染吗?东京比北京车多,为什么不污染?北京市交通委的解释是:东京90%以上的人在坐轨道交通,只有不到6%的人在开车。北京有34%的人开车,且在中心城区拥堵。北京每天高峰期的时候,六环以内每小时的PM2.5排放量是一吨。
北京每一天凌晨都会恒定出现污染的峰值,永远比当天下午有机碳的排放高出两倍。因为外地半夜进京的汽车大面积造假,90%基本上配置都不符合。柴油车的尾气排放出来的颗粒物毒性远比一般的大,致癌性要高出一个量级。如果三万辆车进城,那就相当于几百万辆车夜里还在跑。
全球十大港口现在有七个在中国,在靠近海岸线400米的地方远洋货轮排放的污染相当于50万辆大卡车,在深圳60%的二氧化硫是来自轮船的。中国有二十多万艘这样的船,它用的都是最差最差的重油,有的码头上你可以用手把黑炭一粒粒的拣起来。而广州白云机场排污量相当于60万辆出租车的同时排放。
- 法律怎么了?
我们有《缺陷汽车产品召回管理条例》,但从2004年到现在,这条法律在这类车辆上用过0次。为什么?只有当它危机人身财产安全的不合理的危险的时候才能召回。
我们有《中华人民共和国大气污染防治法》来处罚和销毁这类车的权利,但也只用过0次。因为执法主体不明确。环保部很尴尬,“不敢张嘴,怕别人看到我们没牙”。车企也挺尴尬,“如果环保部不去执法抓那些造假的车辆,我生产真的,别人生产假的,明天我就垮了。”不执法的结果就是逼着别人作假。
如果目前的环保设施和法律100%到位,尘排放和二氧化硫排放应比现在低60%,氮氧化物排放应低35%。中国的污染治理得靠管理。
- 油品怎么了?
北京加的柴油,基本是最好的油品了,但硫含量是欧盟国家的25倍。环科院说,我们国家的油品长期比发达国家低两到三个等级,每提高一个等级,排放可以减少10%。在我国,国家车用燃油质量标准是由石化石油行业主导的。石化行业的回答是:因为国家标准不够高。
那么为何不把标准定高一点呢?环保部门说:分歧在钱上。国三升国四的时候,环保部说一升涨7分就够了。石化行业说那不行,得五毛钱。
国家发改委抱怨:石油石化企业根本不搭理我们,他副部级单位,你拿什么招啊,他搭理你啊,你价格今年不涨价,明年逼上门来,你涨不涨,不涨我断供了,就这话。比如你是独生子,你这个小孩要学坏,你做母亲的有什么太大办法,只能全心全意打一顿呗,别天天打啊,人家有十个孩子,也不会调皮捣蛋的对吧。
中石化已经是一个世界500强之一了,刚刚公布的是去年营业收入2万亿,如此庞大一个国有企业了,为什么不能够在关于环境问题上能够更多的承担起自己的社会责任呢?
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